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Prediction for CME (2026-08-08T08:15:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-08-08T08:15Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/48007/-1
CME Note: Filament eruption CME observed to the SW in GOES CCOR-1 and as a SE halo in STEREO A COR2. Not observed in real-time in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 due to DSN gap starting 2026-08-08T05:00Z. The source is a long-spanning filament eruption from the SW disk, with eastward deflection observed best from STEREO A's perspective. The eruption starts around 2026-08-08T05:37Z, observed in SDO AIA 171/193/211/304 and STEREO A EUVI 195/304 as filament ejecta, double ribbon flare and brightening, field line movement, minimal dimming, and a post-eruptive arcade. The eruption spans approximately ~S20W40 to ~S15W90 (centered S17W65).
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-08-12T00:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 2.0 - 3.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/48009/1
Model Inputs:
2026-08-08T08:15:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=49.0, Lat.=-13.0, Speed=734.0, HalfAngle=41.0, Time21.5=2026-08-08T12:53Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2026-08-12T00:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=2
(kp)180=3

Other Location(s) Impact:
BepiColombo with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-09T05:08Z
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-10T01:49Z
STEREO A with esitmated shock arrival time 2026-08-10T22:38Z

Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = https://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/api/redirect?filename=20260808_125300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_EuropaClippr_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 80.55 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M SWAO) on 2026-08-08T15:27Z

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